Within the season on “Inequality”, in episode #33 of the IDP's Economics and Public Policy podcast, Economisto, the topic discussed was “Vaccines”. Professor Pedro Nery hosted guest Thomas Victor Conti, PhD in Economics, data scientist, professor at Insper and in the professional master's program at the Institute of Public Law (IDP-SP), partner and CEO of AED Consulting and academic director of the Brazilian Association of Law and Economics (ABDE) and member of the Brazilian Association of Jurimetrics (ABJ).
Which is more expensive, vaccinating or not vaccinating?
The first topic addressed in the episode about vaccines is the big, popular question: Are vaccines expensive? Is it more expensive to vaccinate or not to vaccinate?
Thomas Conti provided an overview of the prices of vaccines currently on the market, stating that a vaccine can range from R$25,00 to R$150,00 per dose. However, considering the cost of not vaccinating the population, it could reach R$1.900,00 per person.
A conservative estimate of non-vaccination, considering probable costs and basing its values on the lowest averages, includes expenses such as COVID-19 testing (around R$150,00), medical consultation (around R$50,00 through the Unified Health System), possible hospitalization of people in more serious condition (around R$1.600,00 per day per person), loss of production capacity of the population considering a possible absence of 10 to 15 days (around R$500,00) and the cost of a possible death.
Therefore, the cost of not vaccinating the population is much greater than the cost of vaccinating. Vaccinating 200 million people would cost the government around R$400 billion. Last year, the public deficit alone was around R$800 billion during the pandemic.
"There are no expensive vaccines on the market today; what's expensive is not having a vaccine available," says Thomas Conti.
The Role of the Private Sector in Vaccination
Another point addressed in the episode was the possibility of private vaccination, and Thomas explains that the private sector could assist in the population vaccination process without charging those who are vaccinated. In other words, as has been done in the United States, an agreement between the state and the private sector is possible, where the latter cooperates with the vaccination campaign with the state paying exclusively for it. Thomas explains that such an agreement, where costs are covered, would not be expensive for the state and could expedite mass vaccination. It is important not to confuse the private sector's involvement with charging for administering vaccines.
Private infrastructure is mobilized annually in Brazil for the influenza vaccination campaign. Therefore, a debate regarding the possibility of private sector involvement in the COVID-19 vaccination campaign would be important.
On the other hand, the real possibility of the private system being able to purchase these vaccines in the first half of 2021 is more complex than it seems, even involving diplomatic issues. However, since there is a possibility of an oversupply of vaccines in developed countries in the second half of the year, this scenario becomes more likely from the second half of the year onwards.
Vaccine accountability
In the penultimate segment of the episode, the issue of the vaccine contract clause regarding the non-liability of producing laboratories, which has been widely discussed recently, was addressed. Thomas emphasizes that the laboratory cannot be held solely responsible for these extremely rare side effects, but can be held responsible for other aspects such as the correct production of the vaccine and the omission of information about adverse effects. This system is even recommended by the WHO, so that bad faith litigation regarding vaccine production can be avoided.
These clauses were created to protect laboratories from potential lawsuits from people who suffered side effects not caused by the vaccine, or adverse effects so rare that they could not have been predicted or prevented by the vaccine, even if it were perfectly safe.
Currently, thousands of people worldwide have already been vaccinated against COVID-19. In the case of the Pfizer vaccine, for example, only five people per million experienced any mild adverse side effects, demonstrating the safety of the vaccines.
Did the Federal Government pull a fast one on the vaccines?
Thomas recounts seeing the news that the Brazilian private sector had purchased 33 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, half of which would be donated to the SUS (Brazilian public health system). However, this laboratory already has pre-agreements for the largest number of sales in the world, and deliveries of these vaccines are delayed worldwide. Come discover the excitement of online casino games from the comfort of your own home! With the to discover With this, you'll have access to a wide variety of entertainment options, from slot machines to table games, to suit all tastes. Register now and start playing for a chance to win big prizes!
The hypothesis that Thomas raised about the "Vaccine Maneuver" is that these 33 million doses were part of a batch that the government itself had already negotiated to buy. The government has 100 million pre-agreed doses and would have then ceded the right to purchase 33 million of them to the private sector. This would be a plausible hypothesis based on the analysis of the letter sent to the laboratory by the Brazilian government. Therefore, the government would be selling its purchase rights, and this would also explain how the donation of half of these doses back to the SUS (Brazilian Public Health System) was imposed.
To hear this analysis in more depth, listen to episode #33: Vaccines, with Thomas Conti from the Economisto podcast. click here.
