The student enrolled in the Professional Master's Program in Public Administration at IDP, Paula Ramalho, published the article together with Professor Márcio Oliveira. "Impacts of the New Fiscal Regime on the Superior Court of Justice: A Forecast Based on Historical Budget Execution Data" in the journal Cadernos de Finanças Públicas.
This article provides an in-depth prognosis of the effects of the New Fiscal Regime, introduced by Constitutional Amendment 95/2016, on the STJ's budget, based on an analysis of time series of its budget execution between 2019 and 2019. The article's analyses demonstrate a growing trend, exceeding the limit for adjusting the STJ's mandatory expenses, highlighting the importance of the cost-saving efforts undertaken by the body.
We spoke briefly with Paula about her career path and her published work; read below:
EGEN – Tell us a little about yourself and your professional/academic background.
Paula – During my Business Administration studies, I became interested in the topic of public finance, especially the public budget as a planning tool. My professional trajectory followed the same line of interest, and I currently have 10 years of experience in budget management at the Superior Court of Justice.
EGEN – Tell us a little about your experience in the IDP master's program, what motivated you to choose this program.
Paula – The public budget has been rapidly transforming, and the implementation of the spending cap has generated a series of questions that motivated me to conduct more in-depth research. In this context, the IDP's professional master's program emerged as an ideal opportunity to diversify and deepen my knowledge through a program with a professional focus and professors with technical experience and work in leading institutions in public management.
EGEN – How would you summarize your article in one paragraph using all the keywords?
"New fiscal regime; spending cap; time series forecasting, Holt-Winters model, Superior Court of Justice"
Paula – The implementation of the spending cap (New Fiscal Regime) was accompanied by the assumption that the persistent growth of mandatory expenses would restrict discretionary spending to critical levels. My study evaluates this assumption within the context of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ). To this end, it analyzes the time series of budget execution from 2010 to 2019 and forecasts data up to 2026, applying the Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing statistical model. The data showed that mandatory expenses are expected to confirm growth above the limit adjustment level, compressing operating costs and investments. This growth is being addressed by the STJ's cost-saving efforts, which, so far, have proven efficient and should intensify until 2026.
EGEN – What are the three main reflections that can be drawn from this work?
Paula –
1. The feasibility of using quantitative models for forecasting time series of budget execution.
2- The capacity of judicial bodies to conduct studies on their budgets.
3- The annual forecast of available funds for discretionary spending, based on scientific methodology, underpinning the planning and prioritization of the agency's needs.
To read the full work, click here.
