Introduction

The COP30, the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference, will take place from November 10 to 21, 2025, in the city of Belém, Pará. It will be the first time that Brazil hosts a COP, and the choice of the Amazon as the central stage symbolizes both an environmental commitment and logistical and political challenges.

I - Why does COP30 matter to Brazil?

By hosting COP30, Brazil assumes a strategic position in the climate debate. With the largest portion of the Amazon rainforest under its responsibility, the country can reaffirm its central role in global climate regulation. This is an opportunity to reinforce that emerging economies can lead sustainable development agendas, harmonizing environmental preservation and economic growth. 

Several analyses indicate that the ecological transition will generate a significant economic impact, with the potential to result in growth of up to US$430 billion in Brazil's GDP by 2030, with the creation of 7,5 to 10 million green jobs in areas such as bioeconomy, renewable energy, circular economy, and green infrastructure. 

Furthermore, COP30 attracts interest from climate investment funds and global institutions, and could catalyze partnerships and impactful projects in Brazil, especially around the Amazonian bioeconomy and clean energy. 

The launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF) is planned for COP30. This is a blended finance mechanism estimated at US$125 billion, which will compensate countries with standing tropical forests and penalize deforested areas living off the returns from operations. Brazil proposed the TFFF as part of its legacy at COP30.

Unlike previous editions, COP30 has an explicit commitment to broad social participation, based on direct dialogue between civil society and organizers through working groups and "thematic circles," with particular emphasis on the COP30 Committee, which brings together Latin American activists focusing on infrastructure, NDCs, negotiations, and communication.

The president of COP30, André Corrêa do Lago, warned of the emergence of a new type of climate resistance: " economic denial ," which questions the economic viability of the transition to a low-carbon economy. The task of COP30 is to show that the climate transition also offers real economic gains, without effectively generating losses greater than the profits in the long term.

II – How should Brazil prepare for COP30?

By September 2025, countries must submit updated NDCs. Brazil needs to reaffirm ambitious targets, such as zero deforestation by 2030 and reducing emissions by 59–67% by 2035 compared to 2005. 

(We've already talked about NDCs here on the blog – Link to the article )

Furthermore, a concept of "Global NDC" is proposed, which includes commitments from companies, municipalities, and states in the global process (Global Stocktake). 

To prepare for an event of this magnitude, the city of Belém has been receiving public and private investments – around R$ 4 billion in 2024 alone – for urban infrastructure, drainage, sanitation, mobility, and the City Park, the location of the negotiations. 

The city's hotel network has been expanded with more hotels, adapted houses, cruise ships, and schools converted into accommodations. More than 30.000 rooms have been booked, with subsidized options for developing countries, in addition to 3.900 cabins on cruise ships. 

Aiming for greater efficiency in communication on the subject, Brazil launched a Global Initiative against Climate Misinformation, in cooperation with UNESCO and the UN, with goals of raising US$10–15 million over the next 36 months to fund research and campaigns to combat climate change denial.

To this end, there has been strong mobilization from the private sector through the Global Compact – Road to COP30 Programme, which is structured around collective projects to reduce emissions, combat deforestation, promote a circular economy, and ensure water security. Brazil has encouraged companies to take on leading roles, demonstrating that sustainability is a competitive advantage, not a cost. 

However, for the measures adopted to be effective, careful monitoring is necessary. Despite the efforts, recent reforms to environmental legislation—such as the relaxation of environmental licensing—have generated criticism that the country may lose credibility during COP30 if the government approves the new rules that contradict the climate discourse.

Furthermore, scandals like the Avenida Liberdade project—a controversial highway within the Amazon linked to COP—require transparency and clear explanations to avoid reputational damage. 

III – Risks and challenges

Speeches alone are not enough. It is necessary to move forward with the implementation of the new measures. If the laws relax environmental licensing or allow for the expansion of oil exploration (such as Petrobras' plans with billion-dollar investments), Brazil could lose legitimacy and leadership in negotiations.

Nevertheless, the city of Belém faces historical problems with sanitation (only 2% of sewage is treated), urban pollution, and violence, which challenges the event's credibility as a sustainable model. 

In the face of political polarization, another challenge lies in the rise of anti-environmental and restrictive technical discourses, which require strong and credible campaigns to engage society and the media.

IV – Ideal success scenario by November 2025

To reach an ideal level by the event, it is necessary to pay attention to some key points of the theme.

First, Brazil must present a clear climate plan with well-defined goals until 2035, including zero deforestation.

Furthermore, the TFFF must be launched with operational capital and agreements signed with tropical countries.

Since the business sector is part of the stakeholders involved in the COP, Brazilian companies must demonstrate leadership in circular economy, clean energy, Amazonian bioeconomy, and ESG governance.

Finally, COP30 should take place with a strong citizen and civil society presence—with activists, traditional communities, and social movements influencing the formal agenda. Economic logic confirms that mitigating climate impacts also generates growth, as highlighted by André Corrêa do Lago, president of COP30.

Conclusion

COP30 represents more than just an international conference: it's a crossroads for Brazil. Hosting COP30 in the Amazon is a chance to reposition the country as a protagonist in the global climate agenda—economically, environmentally, and diplomatically. 

However, this leading role requires solid preparation: from logistical infrastructure to institutional strengthening, from ambitious climate goals to social engagement and combating misinformation. 

The success of COP30 will depend on consistency between discourse and practice, transparency in political decisions, and coordination between governments, society, the private sector, and science.

If properly utilized, COP30 could mark a new chapter in Brazil's journey towards a green, fair, and sustainable economy — for the good of the country and the planet.

BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES

DE CASTRO, Ana Beatriz Amaral; DOS SANTOS DIAS, Daniella Maria. BELÉM, COP 30 AND THE RIGHT TO THE CITY: MEGA-EVENTS, GENTRIFICATION AND SOCIO-SPATIAL EXCLUSION. ARACÊ, v. 7, n. 2, p. 9062-9079, 2025.

FEARNSIDE, Philip M.; SON, Walter Leal. COP 30: Brazilian policies must change. Science, vol. 387, no. 6740, p. 1237-1237, 2025.

HOMMA, Alfredo. Amazon before COP 30: what are the paths forward?. Revista de Política Agrícola, p. e01988-e01988, 2024.

PINTO, Talita Priscila. COP 30: final act or new scene in the global climate environment?. AgroANALYSIS, v. 45, n. 01, p. 31-32, 2025.

TEIXEIRA, Izabella. COP 30 and the future of Brazilian tropical agriculture. AgroANALYSIS, v. 44, n. 06, p. 40-41, 2024.