History and context

Since the first Industrial Revolution, the demand for energy has become one of humanity's greatest challenges. The worst economic crises of recent decades have been triggered by energy crises, such as the oil crises of the 1970s. Furthermore, the demand for energy has been growing rapidly, as technological innovations such as artificial intelligence require ever-increasing amounts of electricity. This complex scenario, coupled with global sustainability needs, indicates the necessity of a rapid energy transition, moving away from non-renewable sources (especially fossil fuels) towards clean energy sources.

This process, however, has been slow, as the fossil fuel industry has shaped climate policies, delayed energy transitions, and consequently influenced international regulations. 

Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of global carbon emissions today. As is well known, carbon emissions are largely responsible for the increase in the greenhouse effect, and because of this, international agreements seek to limit these emissions worldwide. The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement are the best-known international treaties that address this issue.

Signed in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, the Kyoto Protocol was the first international treaty to impose targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement, in turn, signed in 2015, also sets targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but, unlike its predecessor, the targets are achieved through policies defined by the signatory states themselves. Perhaps for this reason, it was quickly ratified and entered into force in 2016.

However, the success of ratification was not enough for the implementation of compelling goals by its signatories. The United States, for example, withdrew from the agreement in 2017 during Donald Trump's first term. They rejoined the agreement in 2021 under the Biden administration, and once again withdrew in 2025 when a new executive order from President Trump mandated withdrawal. Today, the United States accounts for the highest per capita CO2 emission rate in the world.

It is necessary to understand that the fossil fuel industry (including coal, oil, and natural gas) is responsible for almost 77% of all energy consumption in the world. It is important to highlight that energy consumption obviously encompasses not only the production of electricity, but also all the energy needed for heating and transportation. It is observed that of all the energy produced in the world, 80% goes to electricity and heating, while 20% is used for transportation.

Obstacles created by the fossil fuel industry to the energy transition.

The major global challenge in achieving the energy transition has been adopting renewable technologies across all three sectors. Much has been done to increase the use of electricity in transportation through the electrification of vehicle fleets worldwide. However, it's important to note that electrifying fleets alone is not enough; a change in the local energy matrix is ​​also essential. It makes no sense to use an electric car if the energy used to charge its battery comes from burning coal or oil.

Thus, it has already been discovered that, in reality, energy produced from fossil fuels is problematic in the long term. They are non-renewable resources; therefore, even though many sources of fossil fuels are available on the planet, they will become increasingly scarce as time passes. Additionally, it is also known that the use of fossil fuels generates serious environmental problems. Therefore, many initiatives around the world have attempted to find environmentally and financially viable alternatives that also make sense from a logistical point of view.

However, due to financial and technological barriers, the fossil fuel industry manages to remain active, demonstrating the global need to sustain energy from non-renewable sources. Changing (or at least substantially reducing) the energy matrix that accounts for 77% of all global energy is a process that takes time and costs a lot of money. This creates an open space for the fossil fuel industry lobby to demonstrate that, while an energy transition is necessary, it will need to occur slowly and very gradually.

The sums of money involved in the fossil fuel industry are still impressive. Among the fifteen largest companies in the world (according to annual revenue), five are in the oil and gas sector. This is also true for Brazil, with Petrobras being the largest Brazilian company in terms of revenue. Furthermore, many large companies focused on the fossil fuel industry have significant state participation, making the separation between company and government almost nonexistent.

Government relations and their role in sector regulation.

Milton Seligman and Fernando Mello point out that government relations activity is inherent to the relationships between private companies and governments, and its results resonate in organized civil society. Provided they are conducted ethically, they are completely legitimate, and companies should even have their own departments dedicated to public policy. Companies also need to have compliance instruments in place to avoid engaging in corrupt practices.

It is evident that there is a complicated barrier in separating the regulation of the fossil fuel industry. If the main companies in the sector globally are state-owned (or have significant state participation), how can one effectively separate the interests of the government, civil society, and the companies themselves?

This is a complex and possibly pointless debate. With so many resources at stake, and an increasingly globalized economy less dependent on the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—given that three of the world's ten largest oil producers (including the United States, the largest producer, and China, the fifth) are not OPEC members—it is natural that the fossil fuel industry remains alive and widespread, especially considering that its main global players are often the same as the states themselves.

Among the major producers of oil, coal, and natural gas are several developing countries with economies that heavily depend on the production and export of these products. Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola are examples of oil producers. Iran and Algeria have significant economic dependence on natural gas. And coal is essential to the economy of South Africa.

It is noticeable that the fact that these countries are underdeveloped, coupled with the fact that their economies are largely dependent on these resources, demonstrates that a significant portion of the development in these regions still relies on resources derived from the fossil fuel industry. Today, according to the World Bank, the country with the highest economic growth in the world is Guyana, with an impressive growth of over 43% in its GDP in 2024, thanks to oil production.

With examples like that of our neighbor, it's clear that the fossil fuel industry is still able to amass a great deal of money, making the path to energy transition difficult. In addition, the fossil fuel industry lobby also seeks to demonstrate that all this wealth produced can guide energy production towards sustainable sources. However, for this to happen, global regulations need to be less stringent, which is why the fossil fuel industry lobby has been able to loosen rules worldwide. 

The European Union, for example, had determined through its European Green Deal in 2019 that by 2030 no more cars with combustion engines should be registered. This directive has already been relaxed, and now the bloc's members will need to achieve this goal by 2035.

Conclusions and forecasts for the energy transition.

Brazil, as host of COP30, and as part of its global commitment to sustainable development, has been attempting to lead policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions in energy production. Currently, more than half of Brazil's energy matrix is ​​renewable, an excellent figure in global terms. In electricity production in 2024, Brazil will use approximately 85% renewable sources, compared to less than 30% worldwide.

Furthermore, the country has promoted policies to reduce carbon emissions in other areas, such as the mandatory use of 30% ethanol in gasoline blends and the use of 15% biodiesel in diesel fuel sold in Brazil. The increase in cleaner fuels reduces carbon emissions, making the Brazilian energy matrix increasingly green.

It should be noted, however, that the process – even in Brazil – is gradual. The fossil fuel industry still has many instruments – especially financial and political ones – to guide global sustainability policies. Furthermore, energy production has proven more efficient, so arguments about carbon emissions have lost ground. By electrifying its car fleet, China shifts the pressure from cars to power plants, which are far less visible to the world as a whole. Thus, they can maintain their 80% electricity based on fossil fuels, but in the eyes of the world, they are striving to favor the energy transition.

From all that has been said, it is clear that for an effective energy transition to clean and renewable sources to occur, it must be productive and efficient from an economic standpoint. Modern society – despite recognizing the climatic effects of global warming – still fails to visualize its long-term needs, so the fossil fuel industry is still able to manipulate the discourse to create regulatory policies favorable to its interests. 

References

SELIGMAN, Milton; MELLO, Fernando. Lobby Unveiled: Democracy, public policies and corruption in contemporary Brazil. Rio de Janeiro: Record, 2018. p. 232-233.

GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET. Global Carbon Budget . Available at: https://globalcarbonbudget.org/ . Accessed on: September 10, 2025.

OUR WORLD IN DATA. CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions . Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions . Accessed on: September 10, 2025.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF). Guyana and the IMF . Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GUY . Accessed on: September 10, 2025.

Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE). Interactive National Energy Balance . Available at: https://www.epe.gov.br/pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/ben-interativo . Accessed on: September 10, 2025.