Principal investigator: Bruno Benevit
Authors: Zoe Long, Jonn Axsen and Shelby Kitt
Original title: Public support for supply-focused transport policies: Vehicle emissions, low-carbon fuels, and ZEV sales standards in Canada and California
Location of the Intervention: Canada and California
Sample Size: 2036 individuals
Sector: Transportation Economics
Primary Variable of Interest: Popular support
Type of Intervention: Policies for reducing GHG emissions
Methodology: Logit
Summary
In recent years, the adoption of electric cars has emerged as a promising alternative to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the transition to electric vehicles faces infrastructure, cost, and adaptation obstacles, implying challenges for its adoption and acceptance of incentive policies for the sector. This study analyzed public support for three transportation policies to reduce emissions in Canada and California. The study conducted a questionnaire with representative samples from the regions, measuring awareness of the policies, their approval, and their relationship to personal values, among other characteristics. Additionally, regression analyses were used to verify which factors affect the popularity of the policies. The evidence indicated that awareness of the policies was low, but support for emission standards and clean fuels was high (60-80%), while support for electric vehicle targets was lower (34-55%). According to the authors, support for the policies is more linked to personal values and trust in local government than to demographic factors, suggesting that effective policies must also be socially acceptable.
- Policy Problem
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has become a global challenge. Small cars play a significant role in this scenario, contributing a relevant share of emissions in the transportation sector (LONG; AXSEN; KITT, 2020). To address this problem, public policies have been developed on two fronts: those focused on supply, which regulate manufacturers and suppliers of vehicles and fuels, and those directed at demand, which seek to influence consumer behavior, such as financial incentives for electric vehicles and investments in charging infrastructure.
Among the supply policies, three main ones stand out: (i) vehicle emission standards (VES), which require manufacturers to reduce the average emission intensity of vehicles sold; (ii) low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS), which oblige suppliers to reduce the carbon content of fuels; and (iii) zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales targets, which determine a minimum percentage of electric vehicles in the fleet sold. These policies are considered essential to achieve long-term emission reduction targets, such as those set for 2030 and 2050 (LEPITZKI; AXSEN, 2018).
In the international context, countries have adopted different approaches to dealing with light vehicle emissions. Often, fearing greater public resistance, regulations on vehicles and fuels are prioritized over carbon pricing policies. California and Canada are examples of regions recognized for their innovative efforts in combating transportation sector emissions. California is a pioneer in fuel standards and electric vehicle targets, while Canada presents a variety of experiences among its provinces, with some following models similar to those in California.
Public opinion plays a crucial role in the implementation and sustainability of climate policies, as a lack of support can politically undermine such initiatives. Therefore, understanding public perception of these policies is essential to ensuring their acceptance and success.
- Policy Implementation Context
California is recognized as one of the most advanced regions in climate policy in North America, especially in the transportation sector. Since the 1970s, the state has implemented stringent regulations to reduce GHG emissions, such as the VES, LCFS, and ZEV sales targets, which are managed by... California Air Resources Board (CARB). The VES was adapted from US federal regulations, while the LCFS and ZEV sales target were pioneering measures, serving as models for other regions. In addition, California adopted a system of cap-and-trade in 2013, which includes fuel distributors.
In Canada, climate policies vary significantly between provinces, with some following California's lead. British Columbia and Quebec are the most progressive in the country, implementing policies such as the LCFS and the ZEV sales target. Canada also has a federal VES aligned with US standards. In addition, some provinces have adopted carbon pricing mechanisms, such as the carbon tax in British Columbia and the system of... cap-and-trade in Quebec.
Public support for climate policies is a determining factor in their implementation and success. Awareness of these policies is generally low, but when informed, people tend to support measures such as VES and LCFS (RHODES; AXSEN; JACCARD, 2014). In contrast, policies based on carbon pricing, such as fuel taxes, face greater resistance. Support for supply-side policies, such as VES and LCFS, is often significantly higher than support for price-based policies, such as carbon taxes.
- Evaluation Details
The study uses a conceptual framework composed of five categories of explanatory variables to analyze support for climate policies: (i) psychological constructs, (ii) trust in actors and institutions, (iii) context, (iv) demographic characteristics, and (v) region of residence. This approach expands the Attitude-Behavior-Context model (Attitude-Behavior-Context – ABC), incorporating factors such as trust in institutions and the influence of the region where individuals live.
The first category, psychological constructs, encompasses values, environmental concern, and concern about climate change. Altruistic and biocentric values are associated with greater support for climate policies, while traditional and selfish values tend to reduce this support. Concern for the environment and climate change is also strongly linked to support for measures such as LCFS and carbon taxation, as observed in research conducted in several countries (LONG; AXSEN; KITT, 2020).
The second category analyzes trust in actors and institutions. Individuals who have more trust in the government and institutions responsible for climate policies tend to be more supportive of these measures. On the other hand, trust in oil and gas companies is associated with less support for environmental policies (RHODES; AXSEN; JACCARD, 2014). Trust in CARB, for example, is a relevant factor for its residents.
The third category, contextual characteristics, includes factors such as vehicle ownership, car use for commuting, and residence in rural areas. In general, owning more vehicles or relying on a car for daily transportation is associated with less support for policies such as the LCFS and carbon taxation. Residents of rural areas also tend to be less favorable to these measures.
The fourth category addresses demographic characteristics, such as age, income, education, and gender. Young people, individuals with higher income and education levels, and women generally demonstrate greater support for climate policies. These patterns are consistent across several studies, indicating that demographic factors play an important role in shaping opinions on environmental policies.
Finally, the fifth category considers the region of residence. In areas dependent on carbon-intensive industries, such as Alberta, support for climate policies tends to be lower. On the other hand, regions that have already implemented environmental policies, such as Quebec and British Columbia, show greater support for these measures. Regional differences can also be explained by variations in trust in government and concern about climate change.
- Method
The study used a 25-minute online questionnaire, administered in April 2019, with representative samples of Canadian and Californian citizens aged 19 and older. Participants were recruited by a market research firm and received a financial incentive for completion. The questionnaire was designed to collect data on awareness of and support for climate policies, as well as personal characteristics of the respondents. The final sample included 2.036 complete responses, with balanced demographic representation, although with a slight overrepresentation of individuals with higher education and average income.
The questionnaire was divided into four main sections. The first assessed awareness of climate policies through open-ended and multiple-choice questions. The second measured the level of support for moderate and strong versions of the policies, using a five-point scale. The third section assessed trust in actors and institutions, with a four-point scale. Finally, the fourth section collected respondent characteristics such as values, environmental concerns, and demographics.
For data analysis, descriptive statistical methods and ordered logistic regression models were used. Initially, proportions of awareness and support for policies were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals to compare differences between regions. Subsequently, the regression models explored factors associated with policy support, using independent variables such as psychological values, trust in institutions, contextual and demographic characteristics.
The analysis also included estimating interaction effects between variables, such as region and concern about climate change, to explore regional differences in policy support. Outcome variables were organized to identify significant patterns and compare support for different policies, such as VES, LCFS, ZEV sales targets, and carbon taxation.
- Main results
Data collected from the questionnaire revealed that awareness of supply-side climate policies, such as VES, LCFS, and ZEVs, is low across all regions analyzed. Less than 5% of respondents mentioned these policies in open-ended questions. However, considering the responses to multiple-choice questions, awareness was higher, ranging from 33% to 53% for VES, 19% to 38% for LCFS, and 6% to 17% for ZEV sales targets. Awareness of carbon taxation was significantly higher in regions where this policy was already in effect, with up to 87% of respondents correctly identifying it. In contrast, awareness of systems of cap-and-trade It was lower, even in regions like Quebec and California, where these policies were implemented.
Support for supply-side policies was consistently higher than support for carbon taxation. VES and LCFS had the highest levels of support, ranging from 54% to 78% for strong versions of these policies, while support for ZEV sales targets was lower, ranging from 34% to 55%. Carbon taxation had the lowest support, with only 22% to 30% of respondents supporting a strong version. Regionally, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia showed the highest support for the policies, while Alberta and California showed slightly lower levels. Opposition to carbon taxation was the highest among all policies, ranging from 42% to 65%.
Logit model results revealed that support for policies is strongly associated with altruistic and biocentric values, environmental and climate concern, and trust in the federal government. Conversely, traditional and self-serving values, as well as trust in oil and gas companies, are associated with lower support. Demographic characteristics, such as higher income and education, increased overall support for policies. Conversely, contextual factors, such as the use of personal vehicles for commuting, reduced support for carbon taxation.
Regional interactions showed that trust in subnational (state or provincial) government plays an important role in policy support, especially in California and Quebec. In California, trust in state government and CARB was positively associated with support for all policies, while trust in federal government had a less positive or negative association. In Quebec, trust in provincial government was a significant factor in supporting the adoption of ZEV sales targets. These interactions highlight the importance of trust in local institutions for supporting climate policies.
- Lessons in Public Policy
In this article, the authors investigated public awareness and support for supply-side climate policies associated with light commercial vehicles, and compared them with carbon taxation. The results indicated that awareness of these policies is generally low, but support for EVs and LCFS is high, while support for ZEV sales targets is proportionally lower. Among all the policies analyzed, carbon taxation had the lowest approval. Furthermore, altruistic values, environmental concern, and trust in government were the factors most associated with the approval of these policies.
The authors highlight that, given the greater acceptance of supply-side policies compared to carbon taxation, strategies prioritizing direct regulations on vehicles and fuels may be more effective in achieving emissions reduction targets. Furthermore, the importance of trust in local government, especially in regions like California and Quebec, suggests that engagement with subnational institutions is essential for the success of these policies. This evidence helps to understand the factors influencing public support for climate policies, aiding in guiding the implementation of more accepted and lasting climate measures.
References
LEPITZKI, J.; AXSEN, J. The role of a low carbon fuel standard in achieving long-term GHG reduction targets. Energy policy, v. 119, p. 423–440, Aug. 2018.
LONG, Z.; AXSEN, J.; KITT, S. Public support for supply-focused transport policies: Vehicle emissions, low-carbon fuels, and ZEV sales standards in Canada and California. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, v. 141, p. 98–115, nov. 2020.
RHODES, E.; AXSEN, J.; JACCARD, M. Does effective climate policy require well-informed citizen support? Global Environmental Change, v. 29, p. 92–104, nov. 2014.
