Principal investigator: Bruno Benevit
Author Jonathan Gruber
Location of the Intervention: United States
Sample Size: 159.884 adults, 3.876 children
Sector: Family structure, Labor market
Primary Variable of Interest: Marital Status, Education, Living Conditions
Type of Intervention: Legislative reform
Methodology: OLS, Negative Binomial Count Analysis
Summary
Several studies indicate that marital breakdown can negatively impact children. In this sense, state reforms that made divorce more flexible in the United States in the 1970s become relevant interventions for evaluating the effects of divorce on individuals. The objective of this article was to identify the effects of the legislative introduction of unilateral divorce on various dimensions of the parents and children of parents exposed to the new laws. Using various empirical strategies, the author identifies that exposure to unilateral divorce caused greater instability in the marital status of adults and their children, in addition to negatively impacting the adult lives of children in terms of education, living conditions, the job market, and suicide rates.
- Policy Problem
The United States experienced a rapid increase in divorce rates in the postwar period. Several authors in sociology, developmental psychology, and family economics suggest that marital breakdown can have negative consequences for children, both as children and later as adults. The advent of legislative changes that made unilateral divorce more flexible in the states in the early 1970s represents a significant intervention in the incentives for this phenomenon.
The main assumption underlying this movement is that regulations that increase the ease of divorce have negative implications for children. This line of argument involves three main assumptions: that the increased ease of divorce under state regulations has contributed to (or even entirely caused) the increase in the divorce rate in the United States; that divorce is actually bad for children relative to the counterfactual of potentially maintaining damaged marriages; and that changes in divorce regulation have no other impact on families that could offset any direct influences through divorce, such as through the decision to marry or through changes in the nature of family negotiation. The existing evidence on the first of these assumptions is rather mixed, the evidence on the second has yet to convincingly address possible selection biases associated with the decision to divorce, and there is little empirical work on the third assumption.
- Implementation and Evaluation Context
Prior to the institutionalization of unilateral divorce, United States state regulations only provided for divorce by mutual consent between partners and motivated by infidelity or domestic violence. Divorce proceedings were highly bureaucratic due to the financial and emotional transaction costs associated with these models. Furthermore, fault was frequently used by one spouse to secure excessive settlements during the process. Therefore, this legal model was considered inadequate and inefficient.
These concerns motivated the divorce law reforms that took place in the United States after the 1960s. Some states initially implemented reforms in favor of no-fault divorce. Subsequently, several other states instituted unilateral divorce in the early 1970s. According to Gruber (2004), divorce rates in the country increased by more than 200% in just 15 years between 1960 and 1975. According to Weitzman (1985), although these reforms aimed to improve the efficiency of divorce proceedings, legislators did not consider the social consequences of these changes.
- Policy/Program Details
Throughout the 1970s, unilateral divorce laws were passed in several United States states, shifting the basis for divorce from fault of one spouse to general “irreconcilable differences” (Weitzman, 1985). These legislative changes substantially reduced the costs associated with divorce proceedings, allowing one partner to separate without obtaining the other's consent. According to Gruber's data (2004), exposure to unilateral divorce laws in the states was accompanied by a continued rise in divorce rates after the 1970s.
- Method
The data used in this study are derived from Public Use Micro Samples (PUMS) from the 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 United States censuses. The data report current state of residence and state of birth. The authors established 3 samples for the analyses. The first contains information by state of residence and year for children aged 0 to 18 years, as well as information on the marital status of the child's guardians. The second sample contains data by state/year/age for adults aged 25 to 50 years. The third sample is a refinement of the second, incorporating the characteristics of state of birth and sex. All regressions were weighted by cell size to replicate the respective microdata. The data were grouped into state/year/age cells for analysis. The first sample was used to analyze the impacts of unilateral divorces on their adult lives, while the second and third samples were used to observe the impact on the probabilities of parental divorce. All analyses estimated the effects separately for men and women, fathers and mothers.
The first analysis of this study assessed how the legislative introduction of unilateral divorce affected the probability of parents being divorced, separated, or never having married. Several separate models were estimated for adults and children living with either parent. In addition, all previous models were replicated incorporating fixed effects of state-specific trends.
The second analysis examined the effects of unilateral divorce on the adult lives of children. The outcome variables considered included marital, educational, socioeconomic, and work-related aspects. Models were estimated for individuals exposed to the intervention during childhood and for those exposed in adulthood. Again, models were estimated with and without fixed state trend effects.
The third analysis examined whether exposure to unilateral divorce in childhood affected the number and suicide rates (per 10.000 inhabitants) of children. Negative Binomial count analysis methods were used for the number of suicides, and the OLS method for the suicide rate. Microdata available in [source missing] were used for this analysis. Vital Statistics Mortality from the period of 1978 to 1996.
The fourth analysis is divided into two parts and considers the time of exposure to unilateral divorce legislation, where the exposure time is divided into three intervals: 1 to 4 years, 5 to 8 years, and 9 or more years. The first part estimates the impact on the marital status of adults and the parents of children. The second part estimates the impact on outcome variables in the adult life of individuals exposed to unilateral divorce during childhood.
Finally, the fifth analysis considers the time of exposure to the legislation through an interaction variable between the binary variable of legislation identification and the age of the individuals. For this analysis, only individuals at least 25 years old were considered.
- Main results
The results of the initial analysis indicate that the legislative introduction of unilateral divorce caused a significant increase of approximately 12% in the likelihood of divorce for both men and women. No significant results were found in the propensity to separate or never marry. Similar results were found when considering children.
The results of the second analysis present several pieces of evidence regarding the effect of unilateral divorce on children, especially those exposed in childhood. Regarding the impact on marital status variables, no effect was identified on the chances of divorce for children exposed during childhood; however, an increase in the probability of being married was observed. An average increase in the number of children was also verified for this same group. Concerning the impact on education, there was a significant decline of 0,6% in the years of schooling achieved by those exposed to unilateral divorce in their youth. Additionally, there was a significant and considerable increase in the chances of graduating from high school and a corresponding large decline in the chances of graduating from college. With respect to the impact on living standards and income, there was a clear reduction in per capita income and earnings of approximately 3,2% and 2,3%, respectively. No significant effects were identified on the number of weeks worked and the chance of working in the previous year. The results were similar for men and women.
The evidence found in the third analysis indicates that exposure to unilateral divorce resulted in significant increases in suicide rates. The number of suicides increased by 5% for women and 1,3% for men. Regarding the suicide rate, increases of approximately 10% were observed for women and 5% for men, effects that are considerably high.
The results of the fourth analysis indicated the existence of heterogeneous effects in relation to the period of exposure to unilateral divorce. For the variables marital status and job availability, the impacts were similar for periods of 1 to 4 years and 5 to 8 years of exposure; however, after 8 years the magnitude of the effects was considerably greater, with the exception of the propensity to divorce. A similar pattern was observed in most of the variables related to education, per capita income, and earnings. These patterns occurred for both men and women. Regarding earnings, however, reductions were observed for women and increases for men.
Evidence from the analysis of the interaction effects between age and unilateral divorce indicated that exposure at a young age increases the chances of marriage and separation at younger ages, but these propensities decrease with age. When exposure occurs in adulthood, the effects of age on the chance of divorce were less significant for women compared to the effects for men.
- Lessons in Public Policy
This study analyzed the impacts of various state legislative reforms that instituted unilateral divorce in the United States in the early 1970s. Through various empirical strategies, the article presents evidence that individuals exposed to these laws as children had lower educational levels and lower per capita income. An increase in marital instability was observed, with a higher probability of marriages and separations. The results also indicated that, while exposed women are less likely to enter the workforce, exposed men are proportionally more connected to the labor market. Both women and men exposed to unilateral divorce in childhood showed a higher probability of committing suicide as adults. The results also indicate that the effects of childhood exposure on marital status occur primarily in early adulthood.
References
Gruber, J. (2004), "Is Making Divorce Easier Bad for Children? The Long‐Run Implications of Unilateral Divorce", Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 22 No. 4, pp. 799–833.
Weitzman, Lenore. (1985), The divorce revolution, New York: Free Press.
