Principal investigator: Adriano Valladão Pires Ribeiro
Article title: It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-run consequences of male-biased sex ratios
Article authors: Pauline Grosjean and Rose Khattar
Location of the intervention: Australia
Sample size: 42.866 observations
Main theme: Genre
Type of intervention: Effects of imbalances in the male-to-female ratio
Primary variable of interest: Stance regarding the role of women and their participation in the labor market.
Assessment method: Natural experiment
Policy Problem
The ratio of men to women in a society influences various social issues, such as marriage decisions, career choices, and the amount of work available. In societies with more men, for example, families may be more conservative, and women may end up being more excluded from the job market. The impacts of a higher proportion of men in a society, and whether they are transitory or persistent, form an interesting topic of investigation, especially when this disproportion is observed in various regions of the world today.
Evaluation Context
A society with more men than women would have some immediate impacts; fewer women would give them a privileged position and more bargaining power, leading to higher marriage rates and lower participation in the labor market. Over the years, the tendency for the proportion of each gender in a society is to stabilize according to the birth rate. However, the disproportion in favor of men can have lasting impacts through cultural norms, even when the imbalance is reversed. Thus, the effects can be divided into short-term and long-term.
To capture the impact of the male-to-female ratio, an experiment would be needed in which groups with varying proportions of men and women, but with the same cultural background and institutions, lived in different places, in order to observe, after a certain time, the social structure of each place. That is, the only initial difference between these groups would be the male-to-female ratio and, therefore, the one responsible for subsequent social dissimilarities.
This situation occurred in Australia for many years, with the proportion of men being much higher than that of women. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the British Empire adopted a policy of sending convicts to Australia, resulting in more men being sent to the country. Furthermore, throughout the 20th century, more free men immigrated to Australia interested in opportunities in mining and agriculture. The resulting disparity in the number of men can then be used to study the short- and long-term consequences regarding the labor market, occupational choices, leisure, and the general attitude towards the role of women.
Intervention Details
The investigation into the effects of gender imbalances took place in the counties and states of Australia. For the most immediate effects, data on the proportion of each gender and the structure of the economy are derived from the first colonial censuses of the 19th century for the six Australian states. In total, there are 91 counties, and the average was 3 men for every woman. The censuses also contain information on the number of married men and women and occupation by gender. In addition, available data from all censuses of the 19th century, covering the period from 1836 to 1881, were also considered.
For long-term effects related to social norms and cultural aspects, the data comes from the 2011 Australian census and the Family, Income and Work Survey (HILDA), available since 2001. Information on cultural aspects and time allocation is obtained from HILDA through responses to questions about who should take care of the household, the number of hours worked weekly, the time spent on housework, and the perception of available time. The census contains data on women's participation in the labor market.
With the above data, it is possible to capture the short- and long-term effects of gender imbalances. First, the short-term effects were measured; that is, the impact of having more men than women on the marriage rate for both genders, women's participation in the labor market, and female employment was sought. This measurement was done for two datasets: one for counties between 1836 and 1881, and another only for the first census of each state.
The second exercise sought to measure the long-term consequences of the disparity in the number of men relative to women, that is, society's attitude towards the work environment and cultural issues related to gender. To this end, the link between the gender ratio given by the first census of each state and the measure of society's behavior towards women, their allocation of time, and their participation in the labor market in the present was measured.
The necessary assumption to obtain the above links is that the ratio of men to women in each state did not depend on economic opportunities. However, individuals' decisions to migrate to a certain region were influenced by both economic and personal factors, which, if transmitted through generations, would create a bias between current variables and the gender imbalance of the colonial era. This fact, if not corrected, may not reflect the long-term effect of the male-to-female ratio, as this ratio would incorporate more importance than it should. The solution is to use the gender ratio of the convict population, since they did not choose the region they went to, could not move, and represented a considerable part of the total population.
Results
The short-term results for both datasets were similar. A higher proportion of men is associated with a higher marriage rate and a reduction in women's labor supply, less marriage for men, and a lower proportion of women employed in high-level occupations. However, there is no way to verify the mechanisms that lead to these results, for example, whether women's lower participation in the labor market is due to greater bargaining power for them or whether it signifies a substitution of work outside the home for domestic work.
In the long term, the results indicate that, nowadays, more people believe that women should stay at home in regions where the proportion of men was higher. This perspective is specific to work, since no relationship was found between past gender ratios and opinions about female political leaders when compared to men. Regarding female participation in the labor market, the relationship is negative, albeit insignificant. However, considering the intensive margin, the number of hours worked, the relationship is negative and strong for women and positive for men. That is, in areas where there were more men, women currently work fewer hours, and the opposite is true for men.
One possible consequence of working fewer hours would be an increased propensity for part-time employment and a lower rate of occupation in high-level positions. In fact, the relationship between the ratio of men to women in the past is negative compared to the proportion of women currently holding high-level positions. Regarding time allocation, the results suggest that women living in areas with a higher proportion of men previously have more leisure time compared to women in more balanced areas. This is because they work fewer hours in the labor market, as reported above, and this time difference is not compensated for by domestic work. Finally, possible corrections to the relationships obtained using the gender ratio of convicts result in values similar in direction and magnitude to the results already presented.
Lessons in Public Policy
The main lesson from the study is that imbalances in the ratio between men and women can have lasting effects, even after the imbalance is reversed. The persistent effect of a period in which there were far more men than women in the past translates, in the present, into fewer job opportunities for women and more conservative views on the role of each gender in society.
Reference
Grosjean, Pauline; Khattar, Rose. "It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-running consequences of male-biased sex ratios." The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 86, no. 2, p. 723-754, 2019.
Policy Problem
The ratio of men to women in a society influences various social issues, such as marriage decisions, career choices, and the amount of work available. In societies with more men, for example, families may be more conservative, and women may end up being more excluded from the job market. The impacts of a higher proportion of men in a society, and whether they are transitory or persistent, form an interesting topic of investigation, especially when this disproportion is observed in various regions of the world today.
Evaluation Context
A society with more men than women would have some immediate impacts; fewer women would give them a privileged position and more bargaining power, leading to higher marriage rates and lower participation in the labor market. Over the years, the tendency for the proportion of each gender in a society is to stabilize according to the birth rate. However, the disproportion in favor of men can have lasting impacts through cultural norms, even when the imbalance is reversed. Thus, the effects can be divided into short-term and long-term.
To capture the impact of the male-to-female ratio, an experiment would be needed in which groups with varying proportions of men and women, but with the same cultural background and institutions, lived in different places, in order to observe, after a certain time, the social structure of each place. That is, the only initial difference between these groups would be the male-to-female ratio and, therefore, the one responsible for subsequent social dissimilarities.
This situation occurred in Australia for many years, with the proportion of men being much higher than that of women. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the British Empire adopted a policy of sending convicts to Australia, resulting in more men being sent to the country. Furthermore, throughout the 20th century, more free men immigrated to Australia interested in opportunities in mining and agriculture. The resulting disparity in the number of men can then be used to study the short- and long-term consequences regarding the labor market, occupational choices, leisure, and the general attitude towards the role of women.
Intervention Details
The investigation into the effects of gender imbalances took place in the counties and states of Australia. For the most immediate effects, data on the proportion of each gender and the structure of the economy are derived from the first colonial censuses of the 19th century for the six Australian states. In total, there are 91 counties, and the average was 3 men for every woman. The censuses also contain information on the number of married men and women and occupation by gender. In addition, available data from all censuses of the 19th century, covering the period from 1836 to 1881, were also considered.
For long-term effects related to social norms and cultural aspects, the data comes from the 2011 Australian census and the Family, Income and Work Survey (HILDA), available since 2001. Information on cultural aspects and time allocation is obtained from HILDA through responses to questions about who should take care of the household, the number of hours worked weekly, the time spent on housework, and the perception of available time. The census contains data on women's participation in the labor market.
Exclusive
With the above data, it is possible to capture the short- and long-term effects of gender imbalances. First, the short-term effects were measured; that is, the impact of having more men than women on the marriage rate for both genders, women's participation in the labor market, and female employment was sought. This measurement was done for two datasets: one for counties between 1836 and 1881, and another only for the first census of each state.
The second exercise sought to measure the long-term consequences of the disparity in the number of men relative to women, that is, society's attitude towards the work environment and cultural issues related to gender. To this end, the link between the gender ratio given by the first census of each state and the measure of society's behavior towards women, their allocation of time, and their participation in the labor market in the present was measured.
The necessary assumption to obtain the above links is that the ratio of men to women in each state did not depend on economic opportunities. However, individuals' decisions to migrate to a certain region were influenced by both economic and personal factors, which, if transmitted through generations, would create a bias between current variables and the gender imbalance of the colonial era. This fact, if not corrected, may not reflect the long-term effect of the male-to-female ratio, as this ratio would incorporate more importance than it should. The solution is to use the gender ratio of the convict population, since they did not choose the region they went to, could not move, and represented a considerable part of the total population.
Results
The short-term results for both datasets were similar. A higher proportion of men is associated with a higher marriage rate and a reduction in women's labor supply, less marriage for men, and a lower proportion of women employed in high-level occupations. However, there is no way to verify the mechanisms that lead to these results, for example, whether women's lower participation in the labor market is due to greater bargaining power for them or whether it signifies a substitution of work outside the home for domestic work.
In the long term, the results indicate that, nowadays, more people believe that women should stay at home in regions where the proportion of men was higher. This perspective is specific to work, since no relationship was found between past gender ratios and opinions about female political leaders when compared to men. Regarding female participation in the labor market, the relationship is negative, albeit insignificant. However, considering the intensive margin, the number of hours worked, the relationship is negative and strong for women and positive for men. That is, in areas where there were more men, women currently work fewer hours, and the opposite is true for men.
One possible consequence of working fewer hours would be an increased propensity for part-time employment and a lower rate of occupation in high-level positions. In fact, the relationship between the ratio of men to women in the past is negative compared to the proportion of women currently holding high-level positions. Regarding time allocation, the results suggest that women living in areas with a higher proportion of men previously have more leisure time compared to women in more balanced areas. This is because they work fewer hours in the labor market, as reported above, and this time difference is not compensated for by domestic work. Finally, possible corrections to the relationships obtained using the gender ratio of convicts result in values similar in direction and magnitude to the results already presented.
Lessons in Public Policy
The main lesson from the study is that imbalances in the ratio between men and women can have lasting effects, even after the imbalance is reversed. The persistent effect of a period in which there were far more men than women in the past translates, in the present, into fewer job opportunities for women and more conservative views on the role of each gender in society.
Reference
Grosjean, Pauline; Khattar, Rose. "It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-running consequences of male-biased sex ratios." The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 86, no. 2, p. 723-754, 2019.
