Principal investigator: Bruno Benevit
Authors: Mounir Karadja and Erik Prawitz
Original title: Exit, Voice, and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States
Location of the Intervention: Sweden
Sample Size: 1,1 million emigrants
Sector: Political Economy
Primary Variable of Interest: Participation in labor movements
Type of Intervention: Emigration
Methodology: OLS, IV
Summary
Migration between countries can have various economic and political consequences. This phenomenon can affect both the countries receiving the influx of immigrants and the countries undergoing emigration, which commonly involves a mass movement resulting from internal national issues. To analyze the mass emigration of Swedes to the United States over the decades, this study examined its impacts on Swedish political aspects. The results demonstrated that the Swedish emigration process led to increased membership in the Labour Party, participation in strikes and voting, as well as the adoption of more inclusive political institutions and increased spending on social welfare programs.
- Policy Problem
The migratory process simultaneously involves flows of emigration and immigration, occurring due to political, economic, and social factors. The Era of Mass Migration, which began in the 19th century, marked a significant period in global history, with approximately 30 million Europeans leaving their countries of origin in search of opportunities in the United States (KARADJA; PRAWITZ, 2019). This massive movement of people not only transformed the demographic landscapes of the countries involved but also had profound political and social repercussions.
In the countries of origin, mass migration influenced union structure, with evidence showing that countries with large emigrant populations, such as Italy, Germany, Ireland, and Sweden, exhibited higher rates of unionization. Furthermore, mass migration coincided with increased democratization, with many European countries adopting democratic institutions and expanding voting rights. These changes suggest that the United States' open borders policy during this period may have played a crucial role in political development in both the New World and the Old World. Further studies are needed to better understand this complex relationship between mass migration, unionization, and democratization.
- Policy Implementation Context
Sweden experienced severe frosts in the 1860s, resulting in a severe negative shock to its agricultural sector, the country's predominant economic sector (KARADJA; PRAWITZ, 2019). Simultaneously, during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, there was significant tension between the Swedish economic and political elites and workers regarding better working conditions and rights. The labor movement was largely represented by labor unions and the Social Democratic Party, the party that governed Sweden for most of the 20th century. In this context, the unions encouraged emigration, putting pressure on the economic and political elites to meet citizens' demands (BEIJBOM, 1995).
Therefore, emigration showed great interaction with labor and political aspects in the country, suggesting possible implications arising from such demographic movements. According to the authors, the first waves of emigration potentially induced the possibility of better employment options for subsequent Swedish emigrants insofar as they caused a reduction in relocation costs (KARADJA; PRAWITZ, 2019).
The mass emigration experienced by Sweden since the 19th century was a phenomenon that extended over several decades. Based on the mechanisms presented by Kapur & McHale (2005), the study explored four channels to explain the migratory waves from Sweden to the United States:
- First, easier access to emigration can exert a significant influence on the choices of those who remain in their country of origin, potentially altering the bargaining dynamics between citizens and elites.
- Secondly, emigration can trigger local economic and, consequently, political responses.
- Third, the selection of migrants could substantially change the composition of the remaining population in Sweden.
- Fourth, this migratory flow can lead to the transmission of values from the new country, the United States, to the country of origin, Sweden.
- Evaluation Details
The study employed a range of data sources covering the period between the 1860s and 1940s, during which the country's economy, predominantly agrarian at the beginning of the 19th century, underwent significant industrialization over those years. The sources used included data from the State Church in Sweden, shipping companies, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, the Archives of the Socialist Movement, the National Archives of Sweden, and various government reports.
The data covered aspects of emigration at the municipal level, including voting participation, labor movements, strike participation, daily weather data, agricultural crop performance, public social spending, and the type of political institutions. Additionally, child and maternal mortality rates were considered, along with demographic microdata on sex, marital status, family structure, and occupation aggregated at the municipal level. Emigration data from the State Church in Sweden were compared to those recorded by shipping companies, indicating the reliability of the data considered. The final sample of the study contained a total of 1,1 million emigrants between 1867 and 1920.
- Method
This study sought to estimate the impact of the first waves of emigration from Sweden to the United States, verifying whether this initial flow provided better employment opportunities for subsequent Swedish emigrants. Thus, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model was used to estimate the impact of the logarithm of cumulative emigration relative to the year 1867 on the policy outcome variables.
Simultaneously, the effect of local frost shocks in Sweden experienced between 1864 and 1867 on the Swedish emigration process and its implications for the country's political environment was estimated. To this end, the standard deviation of temperature levels was used as an identification strategy for frost shocks in emigration, and subsequently considered as an instrument for the interaction of frost shocks with the distance to the two nearest emigration ports. The use of the interaction term as an instrument allows for the estimation of emigration while avoiding the direct effects of economic shocks influencing the results.
As a primary outcome variable of the political environment in Sweden, we observed how adherence to the local labor movement was affected, defined as a single variable identifying the number of union members and the number of members of the Social Democratic Party between 1900 and 1920. In addition, we also estimated the impacts on social welfare spending and the type of political institutions (direct or representative democracy).
In order to corroborate the mechanism presented by the authors, the effects of frost on agricultural productivity in Sweden were verified. As a robustness strategy, the balance between the pre-determined covariates was verified, placebo tests were performed considering other periods for the frost shock events, and models were considered controlling for possible impacts of municipalities' access to ports (in terms of distance).
- Main results
The results presented robust evidence of a positive effect of emigration on various political aspects in Sweden. The preferred estimate identified suggested that a municipality that doubles its emigration over a 30-year period increases membership in the local labor movement by 2,3 percentage points (pp). This impact corresponds to moving a municipality from the average to the 90th percentile of the distribution of membership rates. Furthermore, this pattern was observed to have developed increasingly over the years 1890 to 1920, suggesting a relationship with late industrialization in Sweden and the growth of the labor movement stemming from this nascent sector. Related to political tensions between employers and workers, the results also indicated that increased emigration significantly increased worker participation in the 1909 general strike. This effect was higher among unionized workers, indicating that emigration had persistent effects on participation in labor movements.
Regarding the consequences for the performance of left-wing parties in elections between 1911 and 1921, estimates indicated that a 10% increase in emigration led to a 1,2 percentage point increase in the share of votes for left-wing parties, with stronger effects in elections closer to the start of the emigration process. Additionally, the results also indicated that a 10% increase in emigration induced a 0,8 percentage point increase in voter turnout during this period, marked by the establishment of universal suffrage in 1921. The authors also identified that this effect remained persistent until the elections from 1998 to 2014, although on a smaller scale.
In terms of social policies, the results identified that municipal spending on social welfare programs increased 40% above average as emigration doubled. Additionally, it was estimated that this same rate of increase in emigration led to a 4,7 percentage point increase in the likelihood of adopting representative democracy, which is institutionally more inclusive compared to the alternative of direct democracy, commonly captured by elites due to low popular participation.
Regarding the possible mechanisms that explain the political shift, evidence confirming the increased bargaining power of workers stands out. In this sense, it was observed that locations with larger migrant networks are more likely to emigrate during years when the difference between the GDP of the United States and Sweden is greater. Furthermore, even when workers throughout Sweden migrated to other parts of the country to take advantage of higher wages in the industrial sector, this option was apparently not attractive to those who could easily emigrate instead. As a consequence, a significant increase in workers' wages was observed, including those with low qualifications.
- Lessons in Public Policy
This article examined how large-scale emigration from Sweden to the United States during the Mass Migration Era affected the political development of the Scandinavian country. Through an instrument based on travel costs and the severe agricultural shocks that initiated migration to the United States, it was found that emigration caused significantly higher rates of labor organization, strike participation, voter turnout, and left-leaning voting in the long term. The process of Swedish emigration improved the external options of connected citizens, implying positive effects on the support and implementation of redistribution during a period when Sweden was not yet democratic. The relevance of migration in establishing representative democracy and expanding labor rights amidst nascent industrialization in Sweden highlights the importance of bargaining dynamics between citizens and elites in fostering more inclusive political institutions.
References
BEIJBOM, U. Mot löftets land: den svenska utvandringen. Stockholm: LTs förlag, 1995.
KAPUR, D.; MCHALE, J. Give us your best and brightest: the global hunt for talent and its impact on the developing world. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2005.
KARADJA, M.; PRAWITZ, E. Exit, Voice, and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States. Journal of Political Economy, v. 127, no. 4, p. 1864–1925, Aug. 2019.
