Principal investigator: Viviane Pires Ribeiro
Paper Title: Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?
Authors: Hubert Schmitz
Location of the Intervention: Emerging powers
Sample Size: 4 countries
Main theme: Environment, Energy & Climate Change
Main Variable of Interest: Climate Policies
Type of InterventionEconomic analysis of relevant climate policies
Methodology: Analysis of political economy
Emerging economic powers have a significant impact on the future of planet Earth and the human species. The study conducted by Schmitz (2017) provides an economic analysis of climate-relevant policies in China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. The main conclusion is that most actors supporting these policies have other priorities besides mitigating climate change. Their main concerns are securing energy for the country or specific regions, fostering new green industries and making them competitive, creating jobs and income in these industries, or establishing the basis for increasing public revenue. Mitigating climate change is not irrelevant, but it tends to be a co-benefit, not a driving factor.
Evaluation Context
In recent years, extreme weather events have become more common in many parts of the world. There is strong evidence for this growing climate chaos, as well as evidence that carbon emissions resulting from human activity are the main causes. Reducing these emissions is one of the challenges of our time. It requires structural changes for the global economy to operate within environmental limits. While controversies remain about how quickly emissions should be reduced, it is increasingly accepted that delays will likely increase the costs of dealing with this climate chaos in the future.
The recognition of the need for urgent action led to great efforts to find global solutions. However, little progress was made in international negotiations until the breakthrough in Paris, where a global agreement was reached in December 2015.
Intervention Details
Given that a global agreement was signed in 2015 (the Paris Agreement) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit the average increase in global temperature, Schmitz (2017) comments that the main question is how credible these commitments are. Will they be acted upon? The author then emphasizes that this question is relevant to all countries, but that greater attention will be given to countries responsible for carbon stockpiles and those responsible for increases in carbon emissions – notably the emerging powers that are the focus of the study conducted by the author.
The article analyzes the behind-the-scenes aspects, questioning who drives climate-relevant policies in emerging economic powers and who obstructs them. These questions were analyzed in four countries: India, China, Brazil, and South Africa. In other studies, researchers analyzing these countries sought answers by examining the available literature and then conducting interviews with key stakeholders. The work carried out by Schmitz (2017) brings together the main findings.
Methodology Details
Schmitz (2017) analyzes each of the four countries (China, India, Brazil, and South Africa) and sets out the conclusions within their context. While necessarily brief, it shows who the main actors are, what their priorities are, in what arena they operate, and how opportunities and crises influence policies. The study, therefore, contributes to the understanding of domestic politics in the formulation of global policies. The author's main concern, however, is not to trace the connections between national and global politics at any given moment, but rather to gain analytical control over the forces driving climate-relevant policies.
Given that many policies and sectors have climate repercussions, the study was selective. The author paid particular attention to the transformation of fossil fuels into renewable energies, as it is a central component of decarbonization and increasingly viable from a technological and economic standpoint. This puts political viability center stage and highlights the need to adopt a political economy approach.
Results
Analyses of the four countries (China, India, Brazil, and South Africa) reveal structural factors that inhibit or facilitate transformations. Some inhibiting factors are inherited from millions of years of evolution, namely fossil fuel endowments; others are of recent origin and man-made, notably investments in fossil fuel infrastructure. Facilitating factors can also be subdivided into those "given by nature," i.e., wind and solar endowments, and those that are man-made, namely the national capacity to produce new renewable energy technologies. Where such capacity exists, the lobby for renewable energies will likely be stronger. Schmitz (2017) emphasizes that an unintentional facilitating factor should also be considered, which is energy scarcity, which will likely decrease resistance to the introduction of renewable energies.
These are not the only factors. Institutional systems play an important role. The distinction between coordinated and liberal institutional systems seems relevant. Given the high interdependence of public and private investments in the energy sector, according to the author, it can be hypothesized that coordinated institutional systems are more conducive to energy transitions. And given the enormous uncertainties and the need for experimentation, it can be hypothesized that decentralized systems are more conducive to rapid learning.
Taken together, the insights identified in the study lead to three general conclusions. First, the reasons for supporting climate-relevant policies vary widely. These reasons can be classified into two groups: material and moral. More importantly, they are not mutually exclusive, but – in some cases – complementary. Opportunities to understand and promote change arise once alignments between the two are allowed.
Secondly, there are different types of alliances. On one hand, there is the strategic alliance based on joint action; on the other, the mere alignment of interests without coordination between the parties. Closely related and also very useful is the distinction between a consciously sought alliance and an incidental alliance. Both can be transitory (short-term) or lasting (long-term), but an incidental alliance is more likely to be short-term. Information on the longevity of alliances is scarce, but it is observed that short-term alliances, triggered by particular events or focused on specific initiatives, are more common.
Third, alliances make a difference. They are fundamental to accelerating change or blocking it. Although the literature on how alliances are organized and operate is uneven, Schmitz (2017) argues that they are important. The author emphasizes that we need to unpack the policy process and pay special attention to bottlenecks. Without subscribing to a linear policy process, we can usefully distinguish between policy formulation and implementation.
This is highlighted by the case of China, where policy formulation occurs primarily at the central level in negotiations between various actors. Policy implementation requires other actors or additional actors, typically at the subnational level, and necessitates cooperation between local government and businesses.
Lessons in Public Policy
The study conducted by Schmitz (2017) shows that alliances play a fundamental role in driving climate-relevant policies. However, most actors supporting these policies have other priorities besides climate change mitigation. Support for such policies stems from concerns about energy security, building competitive green industries, creating jobs, or providing a basis for future public revenues. This perception is not only analytical but also political. This means that climate-relevant policies can count on the support of a broad electorate – not just those with green convictions. This analysis provides the starting point for understanding the political viability of low-carbon transformations.
The political viability of low-carbon transformations can be influenced by a number of structural factors, such as the extent of energy scarcity, natural endowments (fossil fuel reserves, solar and wind resources), capacity to produce and adopt new technologies, and energy infrastructure. It is plausible that such structural differences between countries play an important role in the political process, but little or no comparative research appears to have been conducted on whether, how, and why they are important for low-carbon transformation.
References
Schmitz, H. (2017). Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?. New Political Economy, 22
